近日，金沙官网任远研究员作为通讯作者的合作论文在线发表于发展经济学顶级期刊Journal of Development Economics（JDE），论文合作者是山东大学李建文副研究员和对外经济贸易大学李科杨助理教授。

论文标题：Missing repayments on haze days: Evidence from China

摘要：This study examines the impact of air pollution on a universal financial decision that is cognitively less demanding. Based on 281,314 repayment records from a leading P2P lending platform in China, we find that borrowers are more likely to miss their repayments when the scheduled repayment days witness heavier air pollution. A deterioration of air quality from “excellent” to “severely polluted” is associated with an instantaneous and transitory increase in delinquency rate by 143.3 basis points (11.3%). Instrumental variable estimates based on pollution transport via wind or thermal inversion show similar results. Our findings are consistent with air pollution prompting borrowers to forget their repayment obligations, which do not indicate financial distress. However, pollution-induced delinquencies reduce borrowers’ credit ratings and success rates of future loan applications, with the effect being as large as that due to delinquencies unlikely to be driven by pollution, implying a misallocation of credit.

关键词：Air pollution; Household finance; Financial mistake; China

作者简介：任远，9999js金沙老品牌百人计划研究员，9999js金沙老品牌金融研究院研究员。他在2021年于新加坡国立大学获得金融学博士学位。主要研究方向为家庭金融、金融科技、行为金融和应用微观计量。其论文在经济研究、经济学（季刊）、Journal of Development Economics、Review of Finance等经济金融杂志上发表。主持国家级和省部级自然科学基金各1项。 

论文链接：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103491